Autodesk (Nasdaq:
ADSK)
reported another record quarter and their first $2 billion
fiscal year this week, but results weren't strong enough for
Wall Street analysts. The stock closed Tuesday at 39.10, just
before results were announced. Twenty-four hours later, the
stock was at 32.99, down 15.6%. The drop is the largest in
Autodesk stock in more than two years. The stock is now 21% off
its 52-week high of 51.32.
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Most analysts commenting on Autodesk's results focused on how
they missed the consensus for earnings per share; the consensus
was 52 cents, while Autodesk achieved 42 cents. But the figure
we find more telling is US sales growth, which slowed to 1.5%
year-over for the quarter and down 6% sequentially. Most of the
decline was in the AEC division. Autodesk had higher R&D
expenses and higher sales and marketing spending in the quarter
than usual, which put a squeeze on the profit margin. Net profit
was up 19.38% in Q4 2007 and up 16.11% in Q4 2008.
Typical of analysts gone sour on Autodesk was the report from
Michael Huang of ThinkEquity, who has been quite bullish on
Autodesk in the past. He dropped his rating from “Buy” to
“Accumulate,” with a target price of $42, down from $55.
“Autodesk has more exposure to a weakening economy than we
thought, which increases the risk profile in the near term.”
Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 (November 1,
2007-January 31, 2008) was a record $599.1 million , an increase
of 20% over the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007. Net income was
$96 million, flat when compared to Q4 2007, also $96 million.
Autodesk characterized sales growth
internationally as strong, and Americas sales as “slower than
expected.” Revenue in Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA) increased
38% year-over to $262 million. Asia Pacific was up 24% to $131
million. Autodesk reports “emerging economies” globally as a
separate statistic, and the region was up 52% in the quarter,
year-over, representing 19% of total revenue. Revenue in the
Americas, which includes the entire Western Hemisphere, was up
only 2%.
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