Part 2 of this series (see “The
Way of Rhino, Part 2: Behold the CAD Whisperer”) ended with a
question: Why are there so few 3D CAD users as a percentage of the total
installed base of computer-aided design users?
The Way of Rhino says the answer to these questions lies in the
perfect storm brewing on the CAD industry horizon. Just as there is no
single cause for a storm in nature, there is no single reason for the
storm that Robert McNeel and Associates (RMA) see coming. Instead, they
see six indications the CAD industry is in for a big shake-up. And only
two of those indications are connected to CAD technology.
Storm Indicator Number 1: The Lack of a 3D Standard
In 3D, there is no standard. When selling Rhino into companies with
existing CAD applications, it often sees SolidWorks and Pro/ENGINEER,
but seldom Autodesk Inventor; CATIA is “visible in certain market
segments,” says Bob McNeel, “and SolidEdge is disappearing.”
“The marketplace likes standards,” says McNeel, strongly emphasizing
those last two words when he met with four members of the CAD media
earlier this year. “The market will deliver a 3D winner. When? Where? We
can only be ready.”
The strength of existing MCAD applications is “mechanized widgetry,”
McNeel says. Autodesk Inventor could win out, but SolidWorks is strong,
too. These mid-market players are rising, but otherwise the industry is
in flux. The top tier (CATIA, NX, Pro/E) are selling slowly, and the
low-cost MCAD packages (Alibre, TurboCAD, others) are not gaining market
share. “Something is broken there right now that we don’t understand,”
says McNeel of the market.
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